History of numbers
AAPL
every quarter's projection vs. actual FY2026-Q3 reported June 2026 4 of 4 cleared base
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull | Actual | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales $M | 104 380 | 108 612 | 110 492 | 109 417 | Holding |
| Op Income $M | 30 815 | 33 171 | 34 177 | 35 695 (above bull) | Holding |
| Net Income $M | 25 784 | 27 739 | 28 575 | 29 789 (above bull) | Holding |
| EPS $ | 1.76 | 1.9 | 1.95 | 2.02 (above bull) | Holding |
Method
New approach. Before: three revenue-growth numbers typed near management's midpoint, everything else falling out as a residual.
Now: each case is built as a story, with segment revenue and margin as the inputs. Blended gross margin is an output I check against guidance, not a number I impose.
The base case barely moved. What changed is the EPS spread: I can decompose it into $0.13 from revenue and $0.06 from margin. I derive the numbers and audit them myself instead of accepting them.
FY2026-Q2 reported May 2026 4 of 4 cleared base · all above bull
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull | Actual | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales $M | 107 756 | 109 186 | 110 616 | 111 184 (above bull) | Holding |
| Op Income $M | 31 584 | 33 184 | 34 811 | 35 885 (above bull) | Holding |
| Net Income $M | 27 574 | 28 508 | 29 372 | 29 578 (above bull) | Holding |
| EPS $ | 1.87 | 1.94 | 2 | 2.01 (above bull) | Holding |
FY2025-Q1 reported January 2026 4 of 4 cleared base · all above bull
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull | Actual | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales $M | 136 730 | 137 973 | 139 216 | 143 756 (above bull) | Holding |
| Op Income $M | 46 647 | 47 727 | 48 820 | 50 852 (above bull) | Holding |
| Net Income $M | 39 075 | 39 977 | 40 890 | 42 097 (above bull) | Holding |
| EPS $ | 2.65 | 2.71 | 2.77 | 2.84 (above bull) | Holding |